Are the student caps working?
On the demand side, to me the key question (raised by Mike Moffatt in November 2023) was - what would happen in July 2024? A huge part of recent population growth is due to the post-Covid boom in international students, especially at Ontario colleges (the Ontario government seems to regard them as a gold mine), and July 2024 is when the next wave of students would start arriving.
In the short term, reducing the number of new temporary residents - including international students - is the biggest lever that the federal government has to bring down the housing deficit.
My impression is that we're already seeing stories about student visas being down, due to the new province-wide student caps, and graduates from private colleges in Ontario partnering with public colleges no longer being eligible for work permits. But of course we'll see what the numbers for Q2 and Q3 look like.
Student visa crackdown begins slowing Canada population gains. Bloomberg, June 19.
Number of Indian students seeking Canadian visa drops due to restrictions. India Today, June 26. "We are witnessing a dramatic change. The number of Canadian study visa applications has dropped to half. It is bound to drop further as now the work permits are also being denied to the postgraduate students."
A recent column by Douglas Todd, from July 25: Vancouver's Langara College among those bracing for drastic plunge in foreign students. Has some interesting comments on the bigger picture. As of May, things hadn't slowed down yet:
According to numbers from the immigration department, Canada has handed out 217,000 international study permits in the first five months of 2024. In the same period in 2023, 200,000 were handed out.
In B.C., however, study visa numbers are slightly reduced. In the first five months of 2024 the immigration department has issued 40,000 visas to those who say they will study in B.C. That’s down from about 45,000 in the same period last year.
In response to Postmedia’s questions, the immigration department said via email: “It is premature to claim the cap isn’t working.”
It also said it expected visa approvals will go down in the months of August and September.
Indications that a slowdown is on the way:
Andrew Griffith, a former immigration department director who now writes independently about migration, says he believes overall foreign student numbers will begin broadly declining soon.
A crucial government data table, he says, reveals that the volume of people around the world inquiring on the immigration department’s website about getting a Canadian study visa is down 26 per cent this year compared to last.
For instance, there were far fewer inquiries about obtaining a Canadian study visa in June of this year: 68,000 compared to 110,000 in June of 2023.
A Redditor commented on July 6:
I work for one of the largest REITs in Canada. This was the first month we've sent a decrease in rent prices in over a year. 150$ less than last month for a 2 bedroom unit.
Guelph, Kitchener, Waterloo, and Cambridge area.