Why housing shortages cause homelessness. Salim Furth, Works in Progress.
As Aaron Carr notes, there’s a close correlation between high rents and homelessness. But how do high rents actually cause homelessness?
Salim Furth suggests an explanation. In cities where rents are reasonable, there’s a kind of private safety net, provided by family and friends who have spare rooms. But in cities where rents are high, they don’t have room to spare. They may already be doubled up, for example.
The American cities with the highest housing prices have the worst homelessness problems. YIMBY (Yes in My Backyard) advocates highlight this correlation to argue for policies that increase housing supply. But, when you think about it a bit, it’s not clear exactly how high rent contributes to homelessness. It’s not like $800 per month apartments are any more affordable to most homeless people than $1,000 per month apartments. And homelessness is frequently associated with mental health or drug abuse problems. This is why non-YIMBY progressives insist that only more generous vouchers or subsidies can help and non-YIMBY conservatives argue that only behavioral change can help by tackling alcoholism, drug abuse, and mental health problems.
The stories and data in this essay show the missing link between homelessness and housing costs: people without money who avoid becoming homeless do so mostly by staying with others, usually their own parents. This happens outside the formal housing market. But parents’ and others’ ability to offer space is limited by what they can afford in the market. Where housing costs are moderate, friends and family have bigger homes. When they are higher, friends and family don’t have space to share, and this is often what puts a vulnerable person onto the streets.
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UCSF study: homeless people in California are from California
The housing ladder. When we don’t have enough housing, there’s tremendous pressure on people near the bottom of the ladder. They’re forced to move away, to crowd into housing, or end up homeless.
Doubling Up - Distinguishing Families from Households. Jens von Bergmann and Nathan Lauster, June 2024.