What's next?
One of the reasons I started morehousing.ca was that Vancouver's decision on the Streamlining Rental Plan was a window of opportunity to get more rental housing built in the city of Vancouver, and it wasn't a foregone conclusion. The last time the plan came to council, in July 2020, it was postponed by a 6-5 vote.
Now that the Streamlining Rental Plan has been approved (10-1), what's next? In the city of Vancouver:
Vancouver Plan - rapid transit corridors, local shopping areas, low-density areas
Senakw
Broadway Plan
False Creek South
Jericho Lands
The next municipal election is coming up in October 2022. I'd like to see Kennedy Stewart re-elected, along with a solid majority of pro-housing councilors. I may end up running for council myself.
At the provincial level, will the minister responsible for housing (David Eby) override local governments to get more housing built, as has happened in West Coast states (California, Oregon, Washington state), New Zealand, and Japan? Similarly, in Ontario, the Doug Ford government appears to be pushing local governments to build more housing.
At the federal level, there's a new Housing Accelerator Fund. How will it be used? Will federal funding for housing be made conditional on pre-zoning at the local level?
Ever since the 2008 housing price crash in the US and elsewhere, it's seemed like Canada has been overdue for something similar. According to the Economist, Canadian home prices are about 80% overvalued compared to rents. What's likely to happen to home prices?
I'd expect increased scrutiny, taxation, and restrictions on foreign investment in real estate (since foreign investors can't vote). Will Ontario set up something similar to BC's Land Ownership Transparency Registry? When will the temporary federal ban on foreign investment in real estate be implemented?
On the credit side, will the mortgage stress test be tightened? Once we're past Covid and the Bank of Canada starts raising interest rates, what'll happen to home prices?