Vancouver School Board decision to lease "surplus" land at Fleming Elementary
Based on questionable forecasts
Vancouver parents organize rally to save land from school closure, development. Yasmine Gandham, CTV News, October 21, 2025.
I saw Vik Khanna yesterday. He was not happy about the Vancouver School Board’s decision to sell a 99-year lease for a portion of the Sir Sandford Fleming Elementary site, for $8.5 million. It’s at 49th and Knight:
Timeline. See South Portion of Fleming Site and the earlier South Portion of Fleming Site Disposition on the Vancouver School Board website.
May 25, 2021 - Vancouver School Board declares the site (“remnant parcel”) to be surplus.
October 15, 2022 - Vancouver municipal election. All ABC candidates are elected, including five of nine school trustees on the VSB. There’s also two trustees with the Green Party, one with OneCity, and one with COPE.
December 16, 2022 - Ministry of Education approves the declaration.
June 2023 - city of Vancouver approves subdividing the site. VSB begins accepting bids.
November 27, 2023 - VSB authorizes negotiation of a long-term lease for the parcel, in a private meeting.
August 2024 - Victoria Jung, the VSB chair, leaves ABC to sit as an independent.
September 23 and 25, 2024 - VSB passes a by-law ratifying the long-term lease, with Jennifer Reddy (OneCity) and Suzie Mah (COPE) opposed. September 23 agenda and minutes. September 25 minutes.
November 2024 - application submitted to the city of Vancouver to rezone the parcel for a six-storey mixed-use rental building, with 20% below-market rentals. City of Vancouver website.
The public hearing for the rezoning application will happen tomorrow.
VSB’s enrolment forecasts
There appears to be an ongoing issue with VSB’s enrolment forecasts. Earlier posts:
Vancouver School Board forecasts, June 2023.
What if the forecast for declining enrolment is wrong? September 2023.
The March 2021 VSB staff report on the Fleming parcel includes a forecast, saying that enrolment at Fleming is expected to continue to decline below its 400-student operating capacity.
In fact if you look at more recent data, it turns out that since 2020, rather than declining below operating capacity, it’s risen above capacity again. From the provincial ministry of education:
I’m puzzled: when the city of Vancouver is planning for population growth, why do the VSB’s forecasts keep saying that enrolment is going to decline?
It seems like a bad idea that the VSB is making irreversible decisions based on forecasts of declining enrolment.
What happens next?
The VSB has already negotiated and signed the 99-year lease for the “remnant parcel.” I don’t see how they can reverse that decision. So I would expect the rezoning to go ahead.
It seems that there’ll be a similar fight over Sir Guy Carleton School, near Joyce Station. VSB staff are recommending that it be closed permanently, despite population growth near Joyce Station. (In contrast to Commercial-Broadway, Nanaimo, and 29th Avenue Stations, Joyce Station has had a lot of new housing added.)
To me it seems like something’s wrong with staff forecasts. VSB staff are accountable to the school board, and the school board is accountable to voters. I think we need a school board that’s willing to take a close look at staff forecasts. The next municipal election will be on October 17, 2026. That’ll be an opportunity to elect a new Vancouver School Board.
It’s hard to tell who the main contenders will be, when we’re a year away from the election, but my guess would be ABC and OneCity. I’m involved with OneCity, and they’ve already got a lot of active and enthusiastic supporters and volunteers.