Video: Cruel Musical Chairs

A two-minute video by Sightline, from 2017

Do Housing Supply Skeptics Learn? Evidence from Economics and Advocacy Treatments. Chris Elmendorf, Clayton Nall, and Stan Oklobdzija.

Thread on Twitter by Chris Elmendorf. In short, supply skepticism is common, but it appears to be more based on confusion than conviction, and thus many people are open to persuasion that adding a lot more regional supply will help.

Comparing different forms of persuasion - a summary of findings on vacancy chains, an analogy with new cars and used cars, the two-minute video above, and a text summary of the video - the video appears to have the greatest effect, increasing support for market-rate housing by about 15%.

They also found that homeowners and renters were equally supportive of more housing as a result, contrary to William Fischel’s “homeowner hypothesis” that homeowners oppose housing because they want to keep their home values high. (I think opposition is driven primarily by fear of change to one’s own neighbourhood rather than fear of falling home values, which is why it’s hyperlocal.)