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PatrickB's avatar

I need to push back on a small point, which I’m not sure you’re endorsing. Land use reform would generally increase unimproved land values (not counting value attributable to a structure on that land).

We start with the first order effect, in that liberalization allows the land owners to build more and more quickly on their parcel. The land would be disencumbered. All other things being equal, disencumbered land is more valuable and attract deeper-pocketed buyers.

However, as you note, if sufficient construction is allowed over a metropolitan area, so many apartments could be built that the population shifts substantially. In that case, we would expect population to shift towards the city center, where land use constraints are most binding. Theoretically, demand to live on the exurban fringe could collapse. More generally though, land value follows from the aggregate demand to live on a particular parcel that that parcel can accommodate (that is, the aspirant’s income and willingness to spend it, summed over all aspirants who can be accommodated in the largest allowed structure, less for alternative substitute locations and supply side factors related to increasing construction costs as height increases). So, we would expect unimproved land values to increase the most in the center, with increases diminishing as we move from center to periphery.

Of course, in the real world, parcels have structures on them. Under totally reformed land use, we would see the market value of individual dwellings decrease to the cost of building them, potentially by 50%. So, whether any particular landowner benefits from liberalization is unclear. Someone who owns a single family house near the train station just outside the city center would benefit tremendously. Someone who owns a condo in Surrey, or otherwise across multiple bridges from the center, probably not.

You also should consider that, for second-order effects, broad land use liberalization would be radically positive sum. First, if metropolitan Vancouver had lower housing costs, more people would more to the city from across Canada and the world. Immigration raises unimproved land value, because move people and their incomes will be trying to live on the parcels in question. Second, existing denizens will opt to spend some of their savings on larger dwellings. Rich people could even combine rowhouses or adjacent apartments; developers would likewise build more multi room units.

Finally, it’s important to remember that people are usually confused or else risk averse about their economic self interest. People are also hostile to construction for subjective reasons, like that they’re afraid of more people or traffic.

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Kent MacWilliam's avatar

I love this analysis. I was working with first time, albeit much smaller scale developers in Burnaby and Vancouver and I saw a mismatch in expectations. I can't tell you how many folks expected something like 50% land lift for a multiplex project, at already inflated land prices! It just didn't pencil with Burnaby's new development fee structure.

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